Confidence sells. Unfortunately, when it relates to the future it is normally unwarranted.
Mark Twain phrased it better than most; “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”.
If 2022 taught us anything, it should be the retention of a healthy degree of caution when it comes to forecasting. There are some things we can know with a very high degree of certainty. Others, no matter how hard we try, are nothing more than educated guesses. Additionally, as the systems and outcomes we are attempting to forecast become more complex and interrelated, the accuracy of forecasts will fall. 2022 saw a war in Europe, inflation above 8% in the US and into the double digits in much of Western Europe, yet oil prices ended the year almost flat. There were countless other events which featured in the forecasts of almost no-one.
Forecasts we can make with great confidence are that 2023 will hold some surprises and overconfidence is rarely the basis for a sound investment strategy.
Interested in building a strong investment strategy tailored to your personal circumstances? Reach out to our experienced advisers – info@genesisfp.com.au.
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Extracted from ‘It Ain’t What You Don’t Know that Gets you into Trouble’ by Martin Conlon for Informed Investor. Read the full article here (no subscription required).
This information is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, goals and objectives. Therefore, you should consider its appropriateness for your circumstances before acting on this information.
For strategic advice tailored to your personal situation, please reach out: info@genesisfp.com.au.
